Absolutely Brilliant Comparison Of Obama’s Poll Numbers Vs Dow Jones Avg’s

American Missive

UPDATE (06 November 2008): This missive has been updated from its original publishing. The chart in this missive has been replaced with three more up-to-date charts reflecting current polling figures and market values. (Click here for more information on post election markets)

LONG BEACH/ATLANTA— The current stock market unrest reflects a pervasive fear of the future in the US economy. Further, Barack Obama is leading in the polls, and is leading substantially in some. But how does Mr. Obama’s rise correlate to the volatility in the stock market? Does his rise in the polls mean people are turning to him as a result of the volatility? Or does the volatility in the market mean investors are concerned about Mr. Obama’s rise in the polls?

Much has been written about what impact the Obama tax hikes on capital gains, corporations and wage earners earning over $250,000 may have on the American economy. I personally speculate that Mr. Obama’s tax plans will put quite a damper on the market and will slow recovery from the current recession (and thus I’m not voting for him!). But I readily admit that this is all an academic debate at this point- we will not know for sure until Mr. Obama is elected and enacts his plans.

Some speculate that the current volatility in stock market prices confirms that investors have similar perceptions of Mr. Obama’s plans. They dub the current depressed market as reflecting the “Obama Discount.” Markets generally reflect investors perceptions about the prospects of the economy in the upcoming 6 to 9 months. With stocks slumping, those perceptions must not be good. Some suggest that the stock slump directly correlates to the rise in Mr. Obama’s polling numbers. They argue that the slump reflects a general fear among investors that Mr. Obama’s policies on taxes, labor unions, energy consumption surcharges, and expanded regulation (among others) will be a burden on economic recovery.

But is the “Obama Discount” true? Clearly, the overarching concern impacting the stock market is that we are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, with much uncertainty abounding. There is no doubt that this is the primary driver of the uncertainty and volatility.

Nonetheless, the market’s movements are not fully making sense. Major governments have moved swiftly to inject capital into the markets and credit is thawing (ever so slightly). I have argued previously that government movements into the economy may be exacerbating market anxiety, but the conventional wisdom is that these movements are addressing investor concerns about available liquidity and thus stocks should stabilize.

But the conventional wisdom is not happening. The Dow is still dropping considerably, even among companies who offer low priced goods and would seemingly benefit during a downturn (companies such as McDonald’s and WalMart). Supporters of the Obama Discount theory suggest that this unexplained movement confirms investor concerns about the US economy under Mr. Obama.

To test this theory, we created the graph below, comparing the movements in the polls to the movements in the Dow Jones Industrial average.

CLICK HERE For The Graphs. They will amaze you.

Remember… My Blog Is Moving As Well… Please Visit My New Blog At
http://texashillblog.blogspot.com

McCain’s Final Numbers – Internal Polling

Via Patriot Room

PA: MCCAIN 52%, Obama 40%, Undecided 6%

NJ: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Undecided 7%

MI: McCain 45%, Obama 44%, Undecided 7%

VA: McCain 53%, Obama 42%, Undecided 3%

CO: McCain 50%, Obama 44%, Undecided 4%

MO: McCain 49%, Obama 42%, Undecided 7%

FL: McCain 52%, Obama 44%, Undecided 3%

Trending also predicts that the “undecideds” tend to break McCain.  If this is accurate…  WOOT!

Gallup: McCain Gains Ground – Obama +2

Gallup

The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup’s traditional model….

The two percentage point margin for Obama over McCain in today’s traditional likely voters result, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 25-27, is not the first time the race has been this close; it matches the two-point Obama margin that held for three straight reporting periods spanning Oct. 13 -17, a week and a half ago. The traditional model assumes that turnout will follow the patterns of past elections, in which both current interest in the election and past voting behavior are predictors of actual voting.

AP Poll: All Tied Up.

AP

WASHINGTON (AP) – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

“I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don’t think Obama has been around long enough,” said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

I think McCain owes Joe a big favor.  Big.

The Inside Scoop On How Polling Works

This is from a post on Insight Analytical (a favorite of mine) called “Musings on Pollsters:  Confessions of a Former Gallup Study Director.” 

I highly suggest you follow the link to read the whole thing, it is amazingly informative, but here is a bit to get you started.  You will get the inside scoop on both Gallup and Zogby, two of the largest and most “reliable” polling companies in the US, as well as some tips on how to tell a good poll from a bad.

In between these two jobs I worked at The Gallup Organization in Princeton, NJ. This was way back when the founder, George Gallup, Sr., was still roaming the halls. Phone interviewing there was in its infancy. The main source of general survey data was the “omnibus” Gallup survey which was conducted IN PERSON. Appointments were arranged with respondents and pages of questions from various clients were asked, as well as the presidential preference questions that Gallup included for its poll. Of course, as time went on and fewer people were at home, even Gallup was forced to do more phone surveys.

At Gallup, many of the project directors had advanced degrees and there was an “academic” feel to the place. There was a great deal of pride in doing good work. It was at Gallup that I learned how to create a series of questions, figure the statistical significance of results and how to write a report from data. As a study director I also fielded studies and supervised people who recruited interviewees for studies like the infamous microwave oven evaluation, where ovens being sent out for the California part of a study which had begun in Princeton wound up in Japan instead of San Francisco. Luckily, I had an ace field specialist who was able to rearrange the interview schedules and make up the lost time after the ovens finally arrived back in California! And I personally had to make sure we had the correct pool of respondents in terms of demographics and experience even as we were really pressed to refield the study.

At Gallup, there was never any question of altering a survey or slanting the data because of client pressure once the study was designed (with client requirements considered) and finally fielded. Furthermore, Gallup did not undertake any polling from special interests groups, such as the Democratic or Republican parties, other politcal groups, or any organizations with a particular agenda. INDEPENDENCE was the hallmark of The Gallup Organization. In addition, the man who sat in the small office down the hall and designed the sampling criteria was an ex-Marine who was a stickler about sampling. Gallup was not to be messed with! And Andy Kohut, who was President of Gallup when I was there and later went on to run Pew, was someone else who was a great teacher and took the business of polling seriously.

(For an absolutely fascinating history of how Gallup became the “world’s pollster,” check out this story which describes the early years of Gallup and how he learned the hard way after being wrong about the Dewey-Truman outcome that “Lesson No. 1 was to keep polling, right up to Election Day.”)

Of course, “my” Gallup no longer exists….

Gallup: Likely Voters – Obama 49, McCain 47!!!

Gallup

The “traditional” likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today’s results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll’s margin of error.

Obama.com Teaches Supporters How To Manipulate Online Polls

This gives a step by step instruction manual so that you can vote multiple times in online polls and game the results…

Yeah, that’s change alright.

http://www.justsaynodeal.com/cheat.html

Gallup Daily Tracking – Tied Again At 46%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110668/Gallup-Daily-Race-Back-Tie-46-Each.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ — John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.

USA Today/Gallup Poll… McCain Up By 10.

From USA Today

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

WOW…  That is a hell of a bounce…  especially considering that in that same poll McCain was 7pts down the day after Barack Obama’s acceptance speech….

In this poll, Obama got a 6pt bounce from his convention…  McCain got 17.

Ouch.  That has to hurt.

Gallup Daily Tracking – McCain Up By 3pts

GALLUP

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

Gallup Poll – Obama/Biden Convention Bounce Slipping – 48/42

It seems the bounce that the Democrats were hoping for at the end of the Convention in Denver failed to meet expectations and is now slipping away entirely.

The Democrats were hoping for a 15pt bounce out of the announcement of Biden as the VP pick, as well as the “Unity Week” in Denver.  The bounce peaked out at 8 pts mid-Convention week but has now slipped to a 6pt lead.

4 things have contributed to this…

1.  The unexciting choice of Biden as VP

2.  The passing over of Clinton as VP and the continuing disunity in the party

3.  The Russia/Georgia conflict

4.  The naming of Sarah Palin as McCain’s VP which both reaches out to disaffected Clinton supporters and to the Conservative base.

And the Democrats should be worried.  The Republicans are heading into their Convention week, and for the next week…  it’s gonna be all about McCain/Palin.

Obama Gets 5pt Bounce Thanks To Bill and Hill

GALLUP

Hillary and Bill’s speeches of unity and support for Obama have given him a 5 point bounce.  It was bound to happen, and he will probably get another bounce after his speech at Invesco…  perhaps another 5-7 points, but that should be short lived because the Republican Convention is coming up and so is John McCain’s VP choice.

This choice is very important for McCain.  It is almost a make or break.  I just wonder who he is going to pick…  If he picks Romney, it is a safe choice and solidifies his base, but I don’t think he should really worry about that no matter what his polling numbers tell him.

McCain is doing much better than Obama when comparing support among their respective bases.  And I don’t think that his base is really going to go anywhere else in big numbers.  They may not be voting FOR McCain, but I have a feeling they are going to turn out in droves to vote AGAINST Obama.

If McCain is smart, he will make a choice that appeals to independents and can take on Biden head to head in a debate…  and I would be willing to bet he is smart.

I Thought We Were Supposed To Fall In Line? Oh Well….

Well, it looks like that whole disrespectful attitude that the Obama campaign and the DNC had when addressing the concerns of the Clinton supporters is really paying off turning into a predictable disaster.

Now that McCain is in a virtual tie (and even ahead in a few polls) with Obama in a year that there was supposed to be no way in hell a Democrat could lose, I guess they were wrong when they felt like the could remain arrogant and treat Clinton supporters like crap….

But, in their words, “they will fall in line…  there aren’t that many of them and where else do they have to go?”

Well, it looks like they found a place and there is a hell of a lot more of them than anyone thought.

According to MSNBC

Yet perhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama’s inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton’s supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else.

So that means that 48% of 18 million people, or 8.64 MILLION DEMOCRATS will not vote for Obama?  8.64 MILLION!!!!  That is a whole lot of people saying No Deal.

Considering the last 2 Elections were decided by less than 10,000 people, 8.64 MILLION is a hell of a lot of people….

And yeah, you might say he was the strongest Democratic candidate to go up against Obama….  Ummm, no.

From MSNBC

It’s also worth noting that while Obama leads McCain by three points in the poll, Clinton edges the Republican by six points in a hypothetical match up, 49 to 43 percent.

So wait…  She is not even actively running anymore and she still beats McCain???  Seriously???

I hope the Super Delegates and Delegates think about that as they are casting their votes in Denver… and think real hard on whether they want to win or lose in November.

Latest RCP Electoral Map Shows McCain Win

WOW, this should send up some alarm bells!

via Not Your Sweetie

LINK

Ohio: Obama Drops 8pts And Is Now Tied With McCain

In the lastest PPP poll, it shows that Obama has rapidly dropped 8pts in Ohio and is now tied with McCain.

The reason?  Clintonistas…

One factor causing Obama problems is that he’s not doing as good a job as McCain of getting folks in his party to vote for him. While McCain leads 89-7 among Republicans, Obama’s lead is a narrower 75-17 among Democrats. Obama has the 45-28 edge with independent voters.

The Democrats neglecting to choose Obama are disproportionately white, female, and middle aged, an indication that it could be former supporters of Hillary Clinton who are holding out.

And Ohio is one of the most important swing states there is…  this is really not good news for the Dems…

I hate to say “We told you so,” but…  yeah, we told you so.

HuffPo – Why Hillary’s Folks Won’t Quit

I have not been a fan of the Huffington Post during this election cycle.  The Huffington Post, along with DailyKos and DU, lead the charge in the online attack against Clinton, at least perceptually.

Since the end of the primaries, when the real numbers are coming in and critical votes came up, and Obama did not perform as these entities would have liked, they started to get a bit more critical of Obama…  thus the advent of articles like the following…

LINK

One thing that can be said about Hillary Clinton’s backers is that the word quit is not in their vocabulary. Their thinly disguised end around at the Democratic presidential nomination shouldn’t really surprise. The end around is the soft soap announcement that they’ll keep her name in play as a Democratic presidential candidate at the convention. There are several reasons why there’s no quit in Hillary’s folks. They make up a big percentage of the Party, and they still fervently believe that she’s the best, maybe only, Democrat who can beat McCain.

Their passion is driven by an odd, troubling and invigorating, commitment mix of dedication, gender support and racial fears. It’s also driven by the growing unease that the steam is leaking out of Obama’s turbine. Despite seven weeks of non stop media fawning over and adulation of him, Obama still can’t give McCain the shakes in the polls. Worse, McCain seems to have gotten better. He’s sharpened his message, his attacks and confidence.

SNIP

The hard numbers and demographics certainly are good reason for terror over an Obama loss. His caucus and primary wins in the red states and the handful of endorsements he got from the Democratic governors and senators in those states hardly spell a breakthrough for the Democrats in the head to head match with McCain. Obama swept to primary or caucus wins in Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia and Nebraska. Bush won these states handily in 2000 and 2004. But that’s only the start of the problem. Republicans outnumber Democrats in Idaho and Utah by a crushing margin of a three to one, and in other states by margins of two to one and half.

The red states that Obama won in the Democratic primaries have been the guaranteed pathway for Republican presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. to win and stay in the White House. Their 170 to 200 electoral votes are virtually in the GOP’s coffers before the first vote is cast on Election Day. The states are so bankable and reliable for the GOP that it’s the rarest of rare sighting to see a GOP presidential candidate even bother to make anything more than a token appearance in these states in the stretch run of the campaign.

Read the rest…  except for a detail or two (ie the injection of race…  they just can’t leave it alone, can they?) it is a really good article.

USA Today/Gallup Has McCain Up By 4… Beating Obama.

In a very intresting development, the latest USA Today/Gallup poll has McCain up by 4 when including “Likely Voters.”

I am not putting TOOOOO much stock in this just yet, but it is just one more poll that shows the race between the two candidates tightening…  and that is not supposed to be happening LOL.

USA TODAY

“Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among “likely” voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. “

 

Not looking good Barry…  not lookin good at all.

WOW – LA Times Reports Electoral Map Going Red… Fast.

Not Your Sweetie reports on a new LA Times polling map that shows Obama falling WAY behind in clinched states and, therefore, electoral votes.

The count right now… 

 

Also, click here for more Not Your Sweetie analysis.

First Time Ever – Single Digit Congressional Approval – Way To Go Pelosi And Reid

Nitwits…  I have nothing more to say.

Click Here for the numbers

Obama’s Candidacy Puts New York Into Play – May Go Red

Robbedvoter at NotYourSweetie does a great job putting together a variety of polls and trends showing Obama’s numbers in New York state vs John McCain…  and it turns out that he is not doing so well.

How the hell does a Democrat risk losing NY?!?!?!?!?

Seriously friggin amazing. 

Please God, wake up the Super Delegates.

Click Here for the Robbedvoter’s story.