The Party and pundits have been saying for months that the superstar Barack Obama was going to bring all sorts of new people into the party. This meme is even one of the justifications that the “Obamatrons” have used when telling Clinton supporters to “stay home” or to “get out of the Party” and that they “don’t need” us.
Well, I don’t think that’s working out very well…
There are 3 very interesting polls that exemplify just how dumb the Democratic leadership is.
The first, I found through Not Your Sweetie and quotes a new Rasmussen poll
“During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. That’s the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41%.
While the number of Democrats declined, there was virtually no change in the number of Republicans. In July, 31.6% said they were Republicans, the fourth straight month that number has been below 31.4% and 31.6%.”
The second is another Rasmussen poll which basically says…
When given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain for President, 14% of voters are uncommitted, and while much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans.
In addition there are far more uncommitted voters at this point in Election 2008 than there were four years ago.
It is also worth noting that uncommitted Republicans are far more likely to lean towards McCain than uncommitted Democrats are to lean towards Obama.
Ok, so basically we have more undecideds than before… and the undecided Democrats are not leaning towards Obama?
But wait, what about all those college kids and young people that were turning out in record numbers!?!?
Yeah, not so much… there is this little ditty I saw on Real Clear Politcs via Mountain Sage
“And there is some evidence that the balance of enthusiasm has shifted and that young people — who seemed to turn out and vote for Obama in unusually high numbers in the primaries and caucuses — are no longer so enthusiastic about him.
The first bit of evidence comes from the July 10-13 ABC/Washington Post poll. It asked registered voters if they were “certain” to vote. Only 46 percent of voters under 30 said they were — substantially lower than the 66 percent who said so in the ABC/Washington Post poll taken Feb. 28-March 2, at a time when Obama was enjoying a string of primary and caucus victories and before the sermons of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright were circulated on youtube.com on March 13.
These poll results suggest that something — the rantings of the Rev. Wright or Obama’s skinbacks on issues like Iraq and terrorist surveillance — has dampened enthusiasm for him, particularly among the young. The hope that his candidacy would benefit from a historically unprecedented turnout of young voters seems more audacious than it did a short time ago.”
Ok, so the young people are losing interest… and fast. (It is intersting to note that the same RCP poll shows that something like 79% of people over 65 are intending to vote… and, remind me, whose demographic was that? Oh yeah, Clinton… that’s right.
And Thrid, now there is also the Gallup daily tracking poll coming out that are showing the race tied at 44% and that:
This is not much different from the results reported in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Thursday, when the two were nearly tied with 45% for Obama and 44% for McCain. However, it is a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.
Obama and McCain were closely matched in each of the three nights of interviewing included in today’s result, with neither candidate ahead by more than three percentage points. This suggests that the recent surge in voter support for Obama has truly subsided.
But wait… a national poll does not mean he ties the election. We have an electoral college! That will save us… especially since Barack is gonna win new states!
And then Not Your Sweetie also shows us that they are tied in the electoral college too…
Here’s the most likely scenario for a tie: Give Obama the 252 electoral votes John Kerry won for the Democrats in 2004, and add to those New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7), which narrowly went for President Bush in 2004 after backing Al Gore in 2000, and traditionally Republican Colorado (9), where changing demographics favor Obama. Subtract New Hampshire (4), renowned for its independent streak and where voters in Republican primaries have twice favored McCain over establishment-backed and better-funded candidates, and it amounts to 269-269.
Ok, to summarize…
1. The number of Democrats is shrinking
2. The number of Undecideds is higher than ever before
3. Most of the undecideds are Democrats
4. The undecided Democrats are less likely to lean Obama than undecided Republicans are to vote McCain
6. The expected youth turnout is declining rapidly, while older voter percentages are increasing
7. In a no can lose year for a Democrat, Obama’s poll numbers have dropped 15 points in just a few weeks and he is now tied in the polls with John McCain.
Does it look to you like Obama is bringing new people into the party?
Looks to me like they need to pucker up and start kissing some Clinton ass… what do you think?
Super Delegates… you can save us… JUST SAY NO DEAL!!!
Filed under: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain | Tagged: Barack Obama, Clinton, Hillary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, McCain, New People, Obama, Party, Polls, Rasmussen, RCP, Real Clear Politics, Support, youth | 9 Comments »