A Solution For The Banks…

I have been reading many of the various proposals to solve the financial crisis that we are facing here in the United States and the rest of the globe because the securities that are tied to the values of the troubled US assets were sold all over the world.

The United States is in a period that should be ripe for an instant and tremendous boom in growth. Energy prices are incredibly low, index rates are ridiculously low… and yet nothing is moving and credit, the lubricant of the economy, is not being extended or is extended at a premium.

First, a bit of a conversation about why banks are having solvency issues and are therefore either not lending or are lending at a premium….

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The Credit Crisis Seems To Be Easing… Signs Of Recovery Starting To Show

Fantastic news!  And it looks like things are going to be getting better!!!

CNBC

Global interbank lending rates fell sharply Monday, fueling hopes that central banks have succeeded in their massive efforts to unlock credit for cash-strapped banks and borrowers.

Other measures of stress in credit markets ebbed to levels not seen in more than a month….

Money markets plunged into near-chaos a month ago, contributing to U.S. and European governments’ taking over part or all of some banks and financial companies.

However, credit availability appeared to be on the increase recently.

Encouraged by better credit conditions, traders shifted money to stocks and riskier investments from cash and low-risk U.S government bills.

The move sent Treasury bill rates to their highest in about a month and demand for new six-month bills to its weakest since April.

Less jittery banks charged each other less for dollars in the unsecured lending market.

The London interbank offered rate for overnight dollars fell to a 4-year low, drifting closer to the Fed’s target federal funds rate of 1.5 percent.

Traders widely expect the Fed to trim its target rate on overnight loans of surplus reserves between U.S. banks by at least another quarter percentage point after its two-day policy meeting next week.

More telling about a credit thaw was the plunge in longer rates suggesting banks grew more comfortable about lending rather than just hoarding cash….

Overnight rates on unsecured CP dropped below 1 percent on Friday, while 30-year unsecured CP rates averaged as low as 1.43 percent, according to Fed data released Monday.

More help is on the way in the CP market, where many companies had relied on funds for their day-to-day operations.

The Fed will launch its program to buy high-quality CP next Monday.

Ok, so a translation…

Basically, 3 things have happened and 1 more thing is coming…

First, banks began to lend eachother money again and felt a bit better about it.  The proof of that is in the interest rates they are charging eachother.  The inter-bank rates are dropping, which means they feel the risk of loaning each other money is falling.

Second, traders felt better about the economy in general, stopped hoarding their money away and started investing in the stock market and in the general economy again, pushing the markets up.  The fear of risk is going down and money is starting to flow again… thus the 400+ point jump in the DOW.  This is fantastic news!

Third, banks are also feeling better about companies and are loaning to businesses once again.  Companies often borrow money overnight to meet their payroll and day-to-day operation expenses.  This short term business borrowing for operations purposes is called the “CP” market.  It was squeezed over the last month or two because no one knew who was solid and who was not.  Now the banks are now feeling better about the wider economy and lending in the “CP” market again and feeling less risky about doing it, as is evidenced by the rate drop in this market sector as well.

Fourth is the coming government investment in the CP market which will improve the lending rates, margins and volume.  This is great news for businesses as it will make their operating costs cheaper and provide much needed liquidity, and thus making the wider economy much more solid!

All in all, we had a rough couple of months, and while there are still a few things to shake out, the foundations of the economy are all back into place and getting on to solid ground again!

The political implications of this bode well for McCain and not so well for Obama, who has banked (pardon the pun) on a failing economy to put him in the White House.

If the stock market continues to improve steadily, and fears of economic collapse dissipate in the next couple of weeks, there could be a major shift in the polls.

Analysis Of “The McCain Housing Plan”

I will start off by saying that I think that McCain is on the right track with this one.  This is the best proposal I have heard thus far (other than what the Fed is doing currently with commercial paper) to solve the economic crisis America faces.

First, a bit of an explanation of the root problem…  and I am going to simplify as much as possible, talking about the major themes (and ignore important but smaller ones…)

The fundamental cause of the problems with the banks and the economy as a whole originate in the housing crisis.

The housing bubble led to greater and greater numbers of risky loans and exploded when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac started acting much like a hedge fund and invested in the very paper they were insuring.  This led to an explosion in the market and decreasing underwriting standards, especially when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made the “Alt A” programs available. 

The banks began to group these loans (aka bank debt) together into packages and sell them off to other banks.  The bank that bought them took these packages of loans  and divided them into “risk tiers” and sold those tiers as derivatives.  These banks then grouped the derivatives together and divided them further, until the original group was chopped into so many loans it was impossible to tell what was where.

This, in theory, should have minimized the risk associated with the loans.

Because of the grouping and dividing and selling and grouping and dividing and selling, virtually all the banks were heavily invested in these MBSs (mortgage backed security) and CDO’s (collateralized debt obligation.)

Then the economy slowed…  and housing was the one beacon of light in a dimming economy, so the banks, hedge funds, investors, and consumers invested even more heavily in real estate.

As time went on, the banks began to discover that a much larger than expected percentage of the loans were given to people that should not have gotten them.  The bulk of these “bad loans” were found in the Alt A realm that banks would not have normally invested as heavily in, but for the actions and rules of Fannie and Freddie.

With the economy continuing to slow, eventually the housing sector peaked and the dam broke. 

Foreclosures began to happen at an epidemic rate because the people that should not have been in the loans they were given couldn’t pay.

So the banks/hedge funds and especially Fannie/Freddie realized that they should not have been offering all these loans tightened up their lending standards because they couldn’t continue to offer the crap loans they had been offering, which would have made the hole they were in that much deeper.

The side effect of this was that, especially in a slowing economy, fewer and fewer people could qualify for new loans to buy all the houses that were pouring on to the market from new construction projects (at an all time high) and from massive foreclosures.

The housing market glutted, the banks began to dump the foreclosures for next to nothing and all the other houses sat on the market for a year or more. 

With only the foreclosures selling, they were the only sales to peg the prices of houses against and property values started dropping like crazy, especially in places where the bubble was biggest…  CA, FL, NV.

This has caused the secondary crisis…  there are millions upon millions of people upside down on their houses right now.  Millions.

So because of the problems with 10-15% of the loans, and the foreclosures they led to, the values of the houses with credit worthy people now had problematic loans because their property was worth less than the mortgage was for.

Essentially, the banks no longer knew what any of their loans were worth, because the assets tied to the loan weren’t worth enough to cover the outstanding debts, increasing the balance sheet debts of the banks by billions and billions and billions of dollars.

This made the banks “uncreditworthy” and so they stopped loaning money to eachother, leading to near of total collapse of a huge number of banks.

So, in order to solve the valuation problem, keep people in their homes and prevent more foreclosures, and to prop up the prices of homes as much as possible, earlier this year, the Congress approved a program called the “FHA Secure.” 

This program basically works like this…  if you have a $300,000 loan and your house is only worth $225,000 now, if the bank will lower the balance to the $225,000 then the FHA will insure the loan, making the loan more immediately marketable.

The bill and the program went into effect October 1. 

Not a single bank has implemented this plan to date.

The problem is two fold; 

First, it is voluntary…  the banks don’t have to do it.

Second, it requires that the banks take HUGE writedowns and though it may help even out the bottom line in the long run, in the short term those HUGE writedowns would probably kill them at this point…  especially perceptually.

Nobody wants that.

Ok, so now that we are caught up to present times, we can talk about McCain’s housing plan.

John McCain has basically taken the FHA Secure program, and instead of making the banks take the writedowns and essentially forfeit hundreds of billions of dollars…  McCain wants to re-allocate the “Bailout” money to buy out the negative equity on these people’s houses.

Why is this great?

1.  The estimated cost, about $300 Billion…  A number that is less than half of the “Bailout” which only helps banks/Wall Street and does nothing directly for mainstreet.

2.  It keeps people in their homes, reducing their balances and their payments.

3.  It helps prop up housing prices, or at least stabilize them, because it will lead to fewer foreclosures.

4.  It bails out the consumer and the banks in one fell swoop. 

Helps the folks, helps the banks.  Bingo.  I think he has something right there!

Read more here

Brilliant.

As I said, this is the best idea to solve the crisis I have heard so far (other than the fed buying commercial paper… also brilliant.)

 

(and yes, it’s basically Hillary Clinton’s plan, but don’t tell the Republicans LOL)

The Bailout: Say Goodbye To All Of Obama’s Campaign Promises

The past ten days has radically shifted the entire course of the Presidential campaigns… but seemingly not in the way that most people have caught on to yet.

From Firedoglake

I can’t think of any way to sugar coat this, I’m afraid. It’s a bad bill and it isn’t just that Barack Obama voted for it, it’s that everything I’m hearing from the Hill says that he’s been actively whipping it, not just in the Senate but in the House. Barack didn’t hold his nose and vote for this, he made it his bill as much as it is Paulson’s.

With this bill go your chances of having, say, universal health care, or massive infrastructure development, or really getting the US of its dependence on foreign oil, or really rebuilding America’s school system—or whatever other big, expensive project you thought Obama was promising….

….And it’s Barack Obama who turned to Nancy Pelosi and Reid and said “this bill must pass”. It’s Obama who is whipping votes and bending arms for this despite the fact that it is massively unpopular. This is Obama’s bill.

….That’s Obama’s first real act as the presumptive President and as the Democratic party’s de-facto leader.

I both agree and disagree with this article.

While I do agree that the bill as passed is less than great, I disagree with the author’s reasoning behind why the bill is so bad.  As I have said before, the bill is a necessary evil and is better than not acting at all, but the bill as it was passed was terrible because of all the pork.

I do agree with the author that all of the projects that Obama has promised are dead in the water now.

Obama’s proposed projects would cost the United States $1.2 trillion…  and he just signed on to a bill that eats about $815 billion out of the budget.  It will be virtually impossible to add anything else of any size to the budget, even for the god-like Barack Obama.

It’s no wonder that Obama is getting really vague about what he is actually still going to accomplish… especially during the debates

LEHRER: All right. All right, speaking of things that both of you want, another lead question, and it has to do with the rescue — the financial rescue thing that we started — started asking about.

And what — and the first answer is to you, Senator Obama. As president, as a result of whatever financial rescue plan comes about and the billion, $700 billion, whatever it is it’s going to cost, what are you going to have to give up, in terms of the priorities that you would bring as president of the United States, as a result of having to pay for the financial rescue plan?

OBAMA: Well, there are a range of things that are probably going to have to be delayed. We don’t yet know what our tax revenues are going to be. The economy is slowing down, so it’s hard to anticipate right now what the budget is going to look like next year.

But there’s no doubt that we’re not going to be able to do everything that I think needs to be done.

Lehrer went on to press Obama even further and Obama got even more avoidant. The sidestepping during the debate was really interesting to watch though.

With those few deft phrases, Obama has basically absolved himself of actually having to deliver on any promises what-so-ever if he becomes President.

As the author from Firedoglake said… say good by to “universal health care, or massive infrastructure development, or really getting the US of its dependence on foreign oil, or really rebuilding America’s school system—or whatever other big, expensive project you thought Obama was promising.”

The fact is that, because of the price tag of the bailout bill, Obama cannot fulfill a single promise he has made and has as much as admitted it.

John McCain on the other hand can still deliver on his promises.  He wants to cut spending and increase oversight to stimulate the economy, increase job creation and keep industry honest and on track.

And, so I will leave you with this…

Knowing all of the above…  what is your answer to Bill Clinton’s question now?

For example, you’re a voter, and you have Candidate X and Candidate Y. Candidate X agrees with you on everything. But you don’t think that person can deliver on anything. Candidate Y disagrees with you on half the issues, but you believe that, on the other half, the candidate will be able to deliver. For whom will you vote?

The Bailout Cry Spreads – IMF Calling For Europeans To Do US Style Bailout

From CNN

Europe must show it can respond like the United States in the “trial by fire” of the global financial crisis, says International Monetary Fund head Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

European leaders are meeting in Paris on Saturday to discuss their approach to the global financial crisis.

Strauss-Kahn said that the financial situation was an unprecedented test for the countries that use Europe’s common currency, The Associated Press reported.

The IMF boss said the crisis was worrying and that his organization would lower its economic growth forecasts.

I have a question…  so if Europe does a bailout too, where are they gonna get the money? 

Oh, yeah, China…  that’s friggin great.

So what happens when Bailout Fever strikes China?

The Bailout – A Clairifcation Of My Position

Ok, now that President Bush has signed the “Bailout/Rescue” Bill, I feel the need to clarify my thoughts on the bill.

Do I oppose the passage of the bill as it appeared in both the House and the Senate? Absolutely.

Do I oppose the basic principle of the bill? No.

Unfortunately, and as much as I hated it, the bill was necessary.  Period.  No if’s, and’s or but’s.

Who was at fault?

In a word…  everyone…  from the banks, to the politicians on both sides of the aisle, to the public.  This is AMERICA’s fault.

Why Did/Do I support the basic principle of the bill?

Well, the large amount of unstable and insolvent debt the banks owned caused an immense amount of fear and distrust within the financial markets to such an extent that the banks stopped loaning each other money, much less loaning money to corporations and businesses.

While I agree that the “bailout” of stupid decisions is less than ideal, the consequences of doing nothing were so dire that it had to be done.

Coming on the heels of a general economic downturn, and the YTD loss of more than 750,000 jobs, the credit crisis becomes all the more dangerous.  The credit markets were completely frozen this week.  At the highest levels, money stopped.  Dead.  Literally.

This could not happen any longer.  If it did, it is entirely possible that by the end of next week, the economy would come to a screeching halt and we would be completely dead in the water, plunging into a horrendously bad depression…  potentially even worse than what we saw in 1929.  Really.

Companies would not be able to get short term credit (usually overnight borrowing) to meet payrolls, businesses would see the lines of credit they use for inventory purchasing and general operations shut down, and good luck getting a car loan or a mortgage.

By purchasing the questionable mortgages and mortgage backed securities, this allieviates much of the balance sheet strain on the financial institutions, making them much more stable, freeing up cash so that they become able to lend and also so that other banks are willing to lend to them.

So why did I object so strongly to the bill if I think it was necessary?

In a word…  Pork.  This bill got so overloaded with “sweeteners” and pork that it is unreal.

I am very, very upset over this.

Am I against everything that got added to the bill?

No, absolutely not.  I support many of the things that were added.  Many.

For instance…  the tax credits encouraging green energy and energy efficiency are fantastic.  I whole heartedly support those provisions.  Also, the mental health parity provision is one that has been a long time coming.

They do not belong in this bill though.  They deserve thier own.

Was everything that got added total crap?

No.  As a matter of fact, there were a couple things that were added that were very smart.

The temporary increase in FDIC insurance to prevent withdrawal of funds from banks was an intelligent and necessary move that retains a lot of liquidity in the banks.  In addition, the provisions on executive compensation were good…  not ideal, but at least they were there.

So what got added that was crap?

Tax breaks and earmarks got added for Hollywood, NASCAR, Puerto Rican Rum Producers, Virgin Island Rum Producers, the makers of wooden arrow shafts that boy scouts use, fisherman, businesses in American Somoa and all sorts of other little goodies.

Why does this make me so upset?

The reason this makes me so upset is that while working on the most sweeping and important piece of legislation that most of the people in Congress, House or Senate, will probably ever work on in their entire careers…  these selfish, greedy, pandering, blame shifting, irresponsible (ARRRRGGGGHHH) politicians decided that they would spend some of their time thinking about and fighting for other things, and some of those things as insignificant and friggin wooden arrow shafts!!!

Raise the price of the arrows by 2 cents!  I don’t give a crap!!!

Pay attention to the potential bankruptcy of the United States and the precipice of a world wide depression the likes we have never DREAMED of.

Jesus…  stop thinking about yourselves!!!!!  Keep your eye on the god damned ball!!!

Is there more coming or are we close to the end?

I hope we are close to the end, but I don’t think we are.  This was a necessary first step.

So far, the mortgage meltdown and credit crunch has been like a really angry Bull Mastiff sitting in the corner impatiently waiting to take us down.

When the derivatives market and CDS’s start unravelling…  then we will see a really pissed off gorilla of a problem charge into the room.  Hopefully the “Rescue” has put a bit of a leash on this bad boy, but who knows?

I will be discussing the derivatives and debt/default credit swaps in coming posts, so stay tuned…  it’s going to get really interesting, but I will leave you with this little tidbit…

Warren Buffett said that he stay away from the derivatives market because he didn’t really have a good understanding of how it worked….

If Warren Buffett was afraid of the market and essentially said it was nonsensical, can you imagine the mess that sector is in?

What effect has this had on my political stance?

Now, more than ever before, this process has solidified my feet in the McCain/Palin camp.

Washington needs to be reformed.  The culture of pork and earmarks has to stop because it is exactly this sort of selfish shortsightedness that got us into the damned problem in the first place!!!

Only one person on either ticket had the judgement and foresight to predict this crisis…  John McCain.

Only one person has a career long record fighting against earmarks and pork…  John McCain.

Only two people have a reputation of fighting corruption in both the other party as well as their own…  John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Only two people have lived the words “Country First”…  John McCain and Sarah Palin.

McCain/Palin.  Country First.

House Passes Bailout

CNN

I don’t even know what to say…  I wanna barf.

Ever wonder what is in the $800 Billion Bill being voted on 10/3?

If you are like me, you occasionally wonder what our Congress is spending our tax dollars on.  I’ve been searching for an official copy of the bill and the usual summary that accompanies these things – and have not found it.  So in the interest folks knowing what is going on, I thought I’d offer up a two cent summary of the $800 Billion bill that will be voted on tomorrow. 

 

The bill is a combination of the 110 page House bailout bill with a FDIC temporary increase in the account size that can be insured  limit (which is not published – only Sunday’s 103 page House bill draft is available) plus various add-ons that are mainly tax bills already “approved” by both House and Senate but stuck and not passed because of various reasons (“tax cut not offset with expense cut” Blue Dog plus GOP opposition in House, “political timing must be post-election” in the Senate).  But there are a few additional items that I am told that are also already “approved” by both House and Senate, such as:

* The bill deals with creating parity for the insurance treatment of mental health problems.
* The bill details how state and local government will be given funds in lieu of taxes on federal lands within their boundaries.

 

 

And there are two National Security provisions that read like they are CYA for Bush Administration crimes and may well appeal to the House GOP:

* The bill makes permanent authority for undercover operations,
* and the bill makes permanent authority for disclosure of information relating to terrorist activities.

 

And then we have an “Energy” section that reads like more tax spending and has its own title in the bill – The Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008. which would:
* Extend the renewable energy tax credit for wind and refined coal facilities, and expands use of biomass.
* Extend tax credits for marine and hydrokinetic research, which involves energy created from waves and tides, as well as solar and fuel-cell research.

* Allow energy credits to be counted against the alternative minimum tax.

* Give steelmakers tax credits for purchase of renewable fuels.

* Let utilities issue tax-free bonds to promote use of clear, renewable fuels.

* Expand tax credits for investment in coal gasification programs.

* Extend by four years a temporary increase in the coal excise tax to fund black-lung disability programs for miners.

* Provide tax credits for carbon sequestration efforts.

* Allow producers of cellulosic bio-fuels to seek accelerated tax depreciation.

* Double the tax credit for production of bio-diesel and renewable diesel fuels.

* Extend a tax credit of $2,500 to plug-in electric hybrid vehicles. (should be larger IMHO!).

* Allow fringe benefit reimbursement for qualified bicycle commuters.

* Broaden the scope for issuance of conservation bonds.

* Extend current deductions for energy efficient commercial buildings and homes.

* Provide small tax credits for purchase of energy efficient dishwashers, washing machines and refrigerators.

* Accelerate tax deductions for use of smart meters that help a consumer regulate energy use to reduce peak-hour consumption.

* Reduce by 3 percent the tax deductions on income enjoyed by producers, refiners, transporters and distributors of oil and natural gas.

* Eliminate the difference in tax treatment of foreign oil and natural gas production and foreign oil-related income.

* Extend and increase by 3 cents a barrel the oil spill liability tax.

 

 

 

And then there is a section that admits it is specifically directed at the Tax Code which would:
* Raise the exemption level of the alternative minimum tax from the current $66,250/$44,350 for joint or single filers to $69,950/$46,200.

* Extend tuition deductions.

* Extend certain deductions for elementary and secondary school teachers.

* Extend an additional standard deduction on real property taxes for non-itemizers.

* Continue tax-free distribution from retirement plans to charities.

* Extend and modify the research tax credit.

* Extend restaurant improvement credits.

* Extend the tax credit for mine-rescue team training.

* Extend the tax credit for advanced mine safety equipment.

* Accelerate depreciation of business property on Indian reservations.

* Extend cost recovery period for motor racing tracks.

* Extend work opportunity tax credit for Hurricane Katrina employees.

* Extend increased rehabilitation credit for structures in Gulf of Mexico opportunity zone.

* Extend tax credit for investment in the District of Colombia.

* Increase tax deduction for charitable contributions to food inventory.

* Increase tax deduction for charitable book giving.

* Raise to $8,500 the income threshold for calculating the refundable portion of a child tax credit.

* Exempt from excise tax certain wooden arrow shafts for use by children. (prior tax on hunting arrows accidentally hit kid arrows killing industry in Oregon).

* Clarify income averaging for settlement amounts received in connection with Exxon Valdez litigation.

* Provide temporary tax relief for areas damaged by Midwestern storms, tornadoes and flooding and by Hurricane Ike.

 

 

And finally we have the House Bailout Bill as adjust for yjat FDIC insurance change that would:

* Provide the government an equity stake, through non-voting or preferred stock, in companies that are unloading bad assets. If these companies go bankrupt, these warrants convert to a type of debt that places the government at the head of the list of creditors in any bankruptcy proceeding.
* Give the Treasury secretary broad discretion to buy virtually any distressed asset in an effort to get it off the books of a troubled bank or financial firm and help unclog the credit markets. This is called the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP.

* Provide $250 billion immediately to purchase mortgage-backed securities and other troubled assets, another $100 billion with the president’s authorization and the remaining $350 billion would be subject to separate congressional approval.

* Give the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. the ability to borrow without limit from the Treasury to help stabilize banks it regulates, both large and small. This isn’t in the House legislation.

* Allow the FDIC to raise deposit insurance to $250,000 from the current $100,000. Affects the sum of deposits, not each account, in a depositor’s name at any given bank. This too isn’t in the House legislation.

* Require the comptroller general to monitor and evaluate TARP’s performance, especially whether it is helping to prevent foreclosures, providing stability in financial markets and protecting taxpayers. The Government Accountability Office will have authority to order corrections in the TARP effort.

* Order the comptroller general, the nation’s chief auditor, to report back to Congress by June 2009 on whether the government should curtail the ability of banks and others invest with borrowed money. Investment banks borrowed $30 to $40 against every $1 of their own capital they invested, helping create today’s global financial crisis.

* Limit courts from issuing restraining orders or injunctions against the Treasury secretary unless alleging a constitutional violation. In those cases, injunctions would have to be handled on an expedited basis by federal courts. Significantly, there is no limited liability expressed that would necessarily protect the federal government from lawsuits by investors when the government purchases distressed assets.

* Create a special inspector general for the TARP program, to supervise and audit the purchase of distressed mortgages and other bad assets.

* Raise the nation’s debt ceiling to $11.3 trillion.

* Hold hearings on the effectiveness of the program and issue a special report on proposed regulatory reform.

* Reaffirm that the Securities and Exchange Commission has the authority to suspend an accounting rule that some critics think has exaggerated the deflated prices of the toxic mortgage bonds at the heart of the financial crisis. The practice, called mark-to-market reporting, requires banks and other financial firms to report the present-day value of distressed assets that have a hold-to-maturity value. This also is called fair-value reporting, and it was implemented after the Enron scandal to discourage reporting of inflated prices.

* Limit the tax write-offs for executive compensation above $500,000 for companies that sell distressed assets to the government.

* Prohibit “golden parachutes” for executives of firms that are selling assets directly to the government. If the government purchases from a firm, via auction, $300 million or more in troubled assets, similar limits on bonuses and other executive compensation would apply.

 

 

There is still no salary cap on the CEO – remember the promise that the CEO should  “make no more than the highest paid government employee – the President’s $400,000”,  and the bill will be presented to the House under a no amendment rule, so our Financial CEOs will continue to get their 10’s of millions annual salary despite the mess they have caused and their use of the bailout bill to save their company and their job.
 

 

 

Bailout Update: Putting Pickles On A Crap Sandwich

Ok, so the market is doing the unexpected thing:  the day after the bailout/rescue was passed by the Senate, the DOW is tanking…  hard.  It closed 360 points down

Why?

Well, there are a few things going on…

1.  The Unemployment Report is coming out tomorrow and it is not expected to be very pretty.  The highest unemployment since just after 9/11 is predicted and that has the market freakin out.

2.  GE, a standard bearer for the market and a blue chip stock, had some issues, is being propped up by non other than Warren Buffet, but dropped 10% of its value anyway…  bringin the rest of the market down.

3.  Wall St is freaked out on whether or not the bailout/rescue will pass the house (not to mention that it is not that great a bill, and much of the bailout money is going to be used to bailout foreign banks, and is now a bloated behemouth that has earmarks and tax breaks galore)

4.  Harry Reid, the moron, talked about an unnamed Insurance company on the verge of collapse and caused a run on insurance stocks, bringing down the market as a whole too…  CLICK HERE

5.  And on top of all this, now the Democrats in the House are proposing to add a $60 BILLION “economic stimulus” package to the back of it… as if that won’t throw a friggin monkey wrench into the whole deal and hold up passage. 

It’s like they are putting pickles on a crap sandwich!

So, what Congress was given was a very simple proposal to buy up 5% of the tenuous mortgage backed securities to relieve the asset strain on the banks and, hopefully, allowing those banks to loosen up on credit availability.

Now, it is a gargantuan hodgepodge of a bill with a bailout bill, an energy bill, a tax reform bill and an economic stimulus bill all rolled into friggin one.

.

You have got to be friggin kidding me!

Please…  Vote Every Single One Of These Idiots Out!

Holy Crap.

As I said before…  every single day I buy into the whole McCain/Palin reform Washington schtick.

Ok, So I Just Read The Senate Version Of The Bailout Bill…

UPDATE:  To Read The Latest News On The Status Of The Bailout And The Market CLICK HERE

 

 

And it’s a crock of crap.

The bill has now been expanded to 451 pages, from the House version of 110, which was expanded from the original 2 pages submitted.

God, Congress has a way of adding bunches of irrelevant crap and window dressing…

So, basically, the Senate Bill is exactly the same as the House Bill…  with all the same hinkey provisions for “NOT Acorn” groups to “help” the poor, but it has basically added an energy bill and a tax bill on the back of it.

The “Mark to Market” rule is still there, which leads to total crap accounting practices.  Basically this rule says that you have to claim all the assets you have in your accounting based upon the current market value of those assets in a normal transaction in the market today (or at the time of the accounting)…  fair, right?

Yeah, except for the exception, which says that in the case of an asset being in a sector that is experiencing a “firesale” that any of these assets that you hold don’t have to be valued at the current market, but rather what the companies internal measures of the value are…  basically, if you have a mortgage security on your books, you get to make up a number and use that as the value in your accounting.

WTF???

Anyway, the energy bill is strangely irrelevant to the topic at hand but has some ok stuff…  here is an exerpt from the table of contents to the energy section…

Sec. 101. Renewable energy credit.

Sec. 102. Production credit for electricity produced from marine renewables.

Sec. 103. Energy credit.

Sec. 104. Energy credit for small wind property.

Sec. 105. Energy credit for geothermal heat pump systems.

Sec. 106. Credit for residential energy efficient property.

Sec. 107. New clean renewable energy bonds.

Sec. 108. Credit for steel industry fuel.

Sec. 111. Expansion and modification of advanced coal project investment credit.

Sec. 112. Expansion and modification of coal gasification investment credit.

Sec. 115. Tax credit for carbon dioxide sequestration.

Sec. 117. Carbon audit of the tax code….

Blah, blah, blah, you get the point.

Some good stuff in there, but I don’t know why this is in the Mtg Bailout Bill, it doesn’t really seem germane to the discussion, but…  ok, i guess.

Then there is some weird temporary and irrelevant FDIC provision where the increase coverage from 100k to 250k…  ok…  but it doesn’t really give the money to the FDIC, just the authorization to borrow it from the Treasury if needed.

.

But here is where we get to the good part…  the tax bill and all the nifty little earmarks…

First, my personal favorite…

SEC. 503. EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN.

(a) IN GENERAL.—Paragraph (2) of section 4161(b) is amended by redesignating subparagraph (B) as sub301 paragraph (C) and by inserting after subparagraph (A) the following new subparagraph:

‘‘(B) EXEMPTION FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROW SHAFTS.—Subparagraph (A) shall not apply to any shaft consisting of all natural wood with no laminations or artificial means of enhancing the spine of such shaft (whether sold separately or incorporated as part of a finished or unfinished product) of a type used in the manufacture of any arrow which after its assembly—

‘‘(i) measures 5⁄16 of an inch or less in diameter, and
‘‘(ii) is not suitable for use with a bow described in paragraph (1)(A).’’.

(b) EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendments made by this section shall apply to shafts first sold after the date of enactment of this Act.

This is a friggin joke right?  We are dealing with what is perhaps the most severe economic crisis our nation has ever faced and someone is worried about the excise tax on wooden arrows (as in Bow And Arrow) used by kids?  Seriously?

Then there are earmarks and tax breaks for the

-Hollywood Producers and Filmmakers,

-Rum Producers,

-Racetracks

You know…  because that what America needs more of… alcoholics watching movies about motocross while sipping a fruity drink that has a paper umbrella in it.

Seriously…  can we get a clean bill without all the earmarks please?

How about an actual energy bill, a tax bill, a mtg bailout bill, and a bow/arrow bill instead…

not a nonprofitenergytaxarrowbailout bill.

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No wonder DC is all screwed up.  I am starting to buy into how big of a problem pork is more and more every day.

.

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Update:  I cant believe they actually passed this boat of crap…  with all the christmas presents it contains.

Oh, and I hear tell that Feinstein recieved 95,000 emails regarding the bill, 85,000 of which asked her not to vote for the bill….  She voted for it anyway.

Nice.

UPDATE:  For a much more detailed account of what is in the bill, CLICK HERE

Update:  Hot Air has the full bill and some additional information

Who Are Franklin Raines, Tim Howard and Jim Johnson?

These are the 3 guys that took down wall street as bigwigs at Fannie/Freddie…  and guess where they are now?

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They are Obama advisors.

Make sure to follow the link…  they do an excellent job of breaking it down, but below are a few snips for you!

CLICK HERE

Franklin Raines was a Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Fannie Mae. He served as President Bill Clinton’s Budget Director. Raines was forced to retire from his position with Fannie Mae  when auditing discovered severe irregulaties in Fannie Mae’s accounting activities. At the time of his departure The Wall Street Journal noted, “ Raines, who long defended the company’s accounting despite mounting evidence that it wasn’t proper, issued a statement late Tuesday conceding that “mistakes were made” and saying he would assume responsibility as he had earlier promised. News reports indicate the company was under growing pressure from regulators to shake up its management in the wake of findings that the company’s books ran afoul of generally accepted accounting principles for four years.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/02/23/DI2006022301805.html

-Snip-

Tim Howard Was the Chief Financial Officer of Fannie Mae. Howard, “was a strong internal proponent of using accounting strategies that would ensure a “stable pattern of earnings” at Fannie. In everyday English – he was cooking the books. http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20041230/news_lz1ed30bottom.html http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/regulation/2004-09-24-fannie-cfo_x.htm

The Government Investigation determined that,  “Chief Financial Officer, Tim Howard, failed to provide adequate oversight to key control and reporting functions within Fannie Mae,” http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/regulation/2004-09-24-fannie-cfo_x.htm

-Snip-

Jim Johnson: A former aid to Walter Mondale, a former executive at Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers and who was later forced from his position as Fannie Mae CEO, was hired as a Senior Obama Finance Advisor. Johnson is so senior that he was selected to run Obama’s Vice Presidential Search Committee, the Committee that selected Joe Biden.  http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/781141/barack_obama_taps_former_fannie_mae.html

The National Review suggested – “Look at the former Fannie Mae Chief Obama choose for the job (selecting Biden). …. specifically, look at the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s May 2006 report on mismanagement and corruption inside Fannie Mae, and you’ll see some interesting things about Johnson. Investigators found that Fannie Mae had hidden a substantial amount of Johnson’s 1998 compensation from the public, reporting that it was between $6 million and $7 million when it fact it was $21 million.” http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWM3MDFkM2QwNzRjODk3NWZhZTc3OGIxNDQ4Nzc2NDc=

Karl Rove’s Take On The Day – Pelosi and Obama Failed

Bailout Bill Failed – “Oh, Hell No” Runs Rampant and What Happens Next

You can get the info on the fact that the Bailout failed all over the place, so I am not going to cite the info for you…  what I am going to do instead is talk about why it failed and what happens next.

First, why…

Well, when the bill was submitted, it was sold to the public in the wrong manner.

Yes, in politics you have to “sell” ideas to the public first, so that people aren’t unhappy with your decisions and vote you out of office.

Instead of harping on the “if we don’t do this” negatives for the banks, they should have talked about the positive things that the bill would have done for the average person, but because it was framed in the worst way the initial reaction from the public amounted to 200 million people saying… “Oh, hell no.  You are gonna bailout Wall Street fat cats?!?!”

Once the initial reaction passed, the pulic began begrudgingly to accept that the bill was gonna happen, even though they were none too pleased…  and then the Democrats politicized the hell out of it.

Reid called out McCain, so McCain called him on his bluff and headed to DC.  Reid then backpeddaled when Obama decided to stay on the trail.  Bush said ”oh hell no, you are not gonna callout my boy and then sit on the sidelines” and ordered Obama back to DC too.  Pelosi began bashing the Republicans saying that the Democrats bear no responsibility what-so-ever.  Obama led some talks, apparently poorly, that ended up in shouting matches.  Democrats began to rail against the “failed Republican economic philosphy” when in actuality, the Dems bear as much responsibility as the Republicans, the Banks and, honestly, the people that took loans they could not afford or did not understand.

And then the Democrats started earmarking the bill…  for organizations like ACORN and it’s subsidiaries.

The blogosphere and the Republicans gave a unanimous “WTF?  Oh, hell no! You are not giving 20% of the profits to ACORN!”  This then filtered up to the mainstream, and then the public got jittery once again, and I don’t blame them.  Earmarking the damn Bailout bill for an organization that is complicit in the subprime crisis, is registering Democratic voters and is under investigation for voter registration fraud in a very large number of states…  this is not the way to win over Republicans.

It is because of these fumbles in handling the bill starting with Bush, and then with the Democrats that the bill was doomed to failure.

The optomistic estimates were that it was going to be close, but it was not.  At all.  As a matter of fact, the estimated 40 Democrats that were going to vote against it turned into 90+.

The blame for the bills failure certainly cannot not be lain at the feet of the House Republicans as Democrats comprised about 45% of the Nay votes, but I am sure they are going to try to spin it that way.  As a matter of fact, many in the House are laying the blame squarely on the shoulders of Nancy Pelosi and her alone.

So, it failed…  now what?

Well, there will inevitably some sort of bill that comes out.  The new iteration will be either massively larger or significantly smaller…  my guess, unfortunately, is larger.

Also, in the meantime, the stock market is going to continue to freak out.  My guess is that we are going to see the Dow drop below 10,000.  This is going to have the interesting effect, considering the circumstances, of pushing down the yield on the 10 year bond.

The reason the yield on the 10yr bond is significant is that mortgage rates tend to follow it, so as the yield drops, it is very likely that mortgage rates will too…  and if the yield hits the floor, and rates follow, then there is going to be a mini-refi boom and very possibly a run on housing currently on the market.  I mean, if rates drop to the low 5′s or even high 4s for 30 year fixes…  all those houses on the market with their depressed values will start to be snapped up…  investment companies will not be able to resist.

Another thing that I would not be surprised to see happen is that the Fed might just drop rates another quarter in the next few days and open up borrowing capabilities for even more banks at cheaper rates.

If these two things happen in tandem…  the market may correct itself…  if there is a swift enough reaction from the Fed and the banks can hold on for a few weeks longer.

We are looking at some razor thin margins here and who knows what might really happen, but just because this bill did not pass does not mean that there is a death-knell sounding yet.

Either way, this is going to be a close call…  we shall see what happens, but if rates drop significantly and oil prices continue to slide as they did today, then we may not need the bailout at after all.

House Speaker Declares Martial Law, Dems Exclude Repubs From Bailout Talks

Much did not make it into compromise Bail Out Bill

Click Here For The Draft Of The Bailout

The draft Bail Out Law appears to have what was stated in the media – sort of – as its provisions for the troubled assets relief program (“TARP”), and as to its other provisions.

There is a FDIC type insurance program that “may” be developed, where the Secretary may determine by category or class the troubled assets to be guaranteed and the premium associated with that class – with the methodology for setting the premium for a class and a discussion of the appropriateness of the class of assets for participation made available to the public, and with the premiums set at a level to create reserves sufficient to meet anticipated claims, based on an actuarial analysis.

There is a Financial Stability Oversight Board, which shall be responsible for reviewing the exercise of authority making recommendations, as appropriate, reporting any suspected fraud, and with authority to ensure that the policies implemented by the Secretary are— (1) in accordance with the purposes of this Act; (2) in the economic interests of the United States; and (3) consistent with protecting taxpayers, in accordance – in other words it can over-rule the Secretary.

Of course, the Secretary shall have authority to manage troubled assets purchased under this Act, and sell – at a price determined by the Secretary, sell those assets purchased under the Act.

There is a FORECLOSURE MITIGATION authorization to the Secretary saying he SHALL implement a plan and MAY use loan guarantees and credit enhancements to facilitate loan modifications to prevent avoidable foreclosures (Hillary Clinton’s idea that she has been pushing for a few years). The Secretary SHALL consent to reasonable requests for loss mitigation measures,including term extensions, rate reductions, principal write downs, increases in the proportion of loans within a trust or other structure allowed to be modified, or removal of other limitation on modifications. To the extent that the Federal property manager holds, owns, or controls mortgages, mortgage backed securities, and other assets secured by residential real estate, including multifamily housing, the Federal property manager shall implement a plan that seeks to maximize assistance for homeowners and use its authority to encourage the servicers of the underlying mortgages to take advantage of the HOPE for Homeowners Program under section 257 of the National Housing Act or other available programs to minimize foreclosures.

To the extent that FOREIGN financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase the Bill.

EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION LIMITS sort of apply to ANY financial
institution that sells troubled assets to the Secretary under
this Act and they will be in effect as long as the Secretary
holds an equity or debt position in the financial institution.
But they only apply to the top five persons as disclosed in
filings under current SEC rules, and then they only apply if
the auction purchases have transferred $300 million of assets
to the Secretary from that financial institution. The only
restriction is that those five may not get any “golden parachute”,
but the Secretary can demand their compensation be limited to
“appropriate standards for executive compensation and corporate
governance” for any “new” contract.  That $400,000 salary limit
did not last long.

AUCTION PURCHASES are not required, nor is the process of asset acquisition detailed – except that the Secretary is to seek minimization of long term cost and maximum benefit to taxpayers – where “maximum benefit” can mean over paying for assets so as to get credit flowing more quickly – so it is a bit of a con-job. However, the Secretary is to – where appropriate -USE MARKET MECHANISMS like buy at lowest prices, and use market mechanisms like auctions or reverse auctions. A bit of trust is involved here.

We can pretend that a financial institution is OK by using assets values that are higher than current market values as MARK TO MARKET accounting can be changed by the SEC as needed to give the illusion – if doing so is a good idea, I guess.

Bill O’Reilly… My New Hero?

I must say that this election season has been the craziest I have ever seen.  I feel like I have stepped through the looking glass and what was down is now up.

In the most recent of unexpected twists…  I think Bill O’Reilly might be my new hero?

via MOUNTAIN SAGE

Reverse Auctions in Bail out – designed to not screw taxpayer?

Reverse Auction Design – will it be in the final bill?

With over 100,000 individual designed  mortgage-related securities, obligations, and other instruments outstanding, further divided  by multiple rated tranches, auctions to price each piece are not workable.  But the Mortgage Bailout Bill depends on price discovery via auction – and as far as I can tell does not have rules for that discovery.  So we are left with “trust me” and regulations to be announced later.  Knowing loan vintage, maturity, loan type, interest rate, location, payment history, FICO score, and initial loan/value ratio will not prevent are narrowly restricted, a package of some degree of heterogeneity in any package of loans.  Prior over-the-counter trading in mortgage-related assets has ended because computer models are no longer trusted for price discovery.

The Paulson program  of auctions for mortgage-related assets seems to be intended to be a one-time event – why I do not know since a standardized investment form and an exchange for that form would seem to be the best way to avoid our current problem in the future.  But as I understand the Bailout Bill, the plan is to have each asset hit the auction block once and then stopping there, or stopping once the money runs out.

In some statements Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke appeared to identify as the objective finding a “hold-to-maturity” value – but that means paying a great deal more than market value – later he indicated he was referring to the higher market value post auction because of US Gov ownership of the asset was the value he wanted to pay – this is a major difference – and still sounds like an “auction” with a floor that is above market value.  Will there be anything  in the Bill to address this? Treasury can not just offer to buy the Banks non-saleable assets – a Bank would be a fool if it did not greatly over price those assets in that situation. Treasury can not commit  to purchasing the entire quantity offered of a given package – it must allocate its budget among the various packages available for sale – buying a portion of each package.

The Packages (packages of assets since individual auctions for each asset design is impractical because every asset is an individual design) will give good price discovery, but by definition, the more heterogeneous the package the more likely the US Taxpayer will be screwed because of the adverse selection problem of relatively inferior assets being disproportionately offered for sale at the lowest prices. Treasury will end up buying the worst of the lot and, if a single price is paid for all units, overpaying, with Banks with higher quality assets asking for a higher bid, and finding they can not sell at that higher price – but with the high quality asset bank being screwed as it is forced to mark down its higher quality asset to the price given for the low quality package.

The order of sale of the packages will determine how badly the taxpayer is screwed – Treasury must start with packages of securities having severely depressed prices in their computer model, relatively simple features, and substantial face value owned  (e.g.,  straight pass-through securities with subprime mortgage collateral),  Will this requirement be in the Bill?

.
With luck we will be able to end the now stalled “over-the-counter” markets, replacing it with an exchange and standardized packages, with a non-standard package area in that exchange (as exists now at our exchanges).

We will still need to buy and sell some assets purely by looking at the computer model output – but where that output is not trusted today because input parameters are felt to be possibly incorrect, it will be easier to get to a sale once  the newly available market data generated by auctions are used, to estimate the contribution to value of the various asset characteristics. Applying the estimated models to the non-auctioned assets would then yield a predicted price for each asset. Transparency requires that today’s “proprietary” formulas be reveal – they caused this mess and have no value, so with luck they will be donated to Treasury and we will not pay the Banks for that bit of information.

Follow Up: Acorn and The Bailout

While writing the piece about how the Democrats attempted to earmark the bailout to divert funds to ACORN, it occurred to me that some of my readers might not completely understand who or what ACORN is, how they are related to the Democratic Party, how Obama is intertwined with this group and why the inclusion of this group is so significant.

To explain further, I am going to defer to NancyA of NoQuarter and Renaissancelady48, and Larry Johnson of NoQuarter and Eastan Macniel, also of NoQuarter.  These people have done some ground breaking work on ACORN.

Here is a recommended selection of reading….  (in no particular chronological or informational order)

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/07/05/obamas-acorn/

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/07/25/obama%E2%80%99s-acorn-a-leftist-social-reform-group-part-ii-2/

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/08/29/acorn-project-vote-and-voter-fraud/ (with a contribution from yours truly )

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/09/27/consumer-rights-league-obama-acorn-and-the-subprime-mortgage/

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/08/20/money-laundering-scandal/

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/08/15/obama-acorn-citizens-services-inc-false-fec-filings/

http://renaissancelady48.wordpress.com/2008/09/22/hannity-colmes-and-fund-get-it-wrong/

http://renaissancelady48.wordpress.com/2008/09/25/consumer-rights-league-on-acorn/

http://renaissancelady48.wordpress.com/2008/09/26/consumer-rights-league-obama-acorn-and-the-subprime-mortgages/

http://renaissancelady48.wordpress.com/2008/09/28/more-on-voter-fraud-obama-and-acorn/

Lots of good reading…  that should tell you everything you need to know about the people that Obama keeps diverting money to and who he chooses to associate with!

UPDATE:  Just Say No Deal has a great graphic up!

http://justsaynodeal.com/acorn.html

Priorities…. Others vs Self

Today, John McCain is once again setting aside his Presidential campaign and is ready to delay or cancel the debate he is expected to perform best in, the foreign policy debate, so that he can be at the forefront of the Bailout efforts and make sure that the American people get the best possible solution in a timely manner.

On the other hand, Barack Obama has not suspended his campaign, has bought up all of the advertizing time the McCain forfeited to take care of the American people, has his surrogates running horrendously offensive ads that tell people that McCain is going to die of cancer in graphic detail, and is spending his mornings at the gym….

So, who’s putting Country First?  Who’s putting the American people first?  Who’s putting you and your family…  first?

John McCain.

Barack Obama just doesn’t get it.

The Dems Earmark The Bailout Bill!?!?!? For ACORN?!?!?!

UPDATE:  You should see the Senate version of the bill…  I just got done reading it…  holy god.

 

Note:  Background info on ACORN as a follow up has been posted HERE

Back to  our original programming…

HOLY CRAP!

No wonder the Republicans are freaking out over this bill and the whole thing is about to fall through…

The friggin Democrats put EARMARKS in the bill!!!!

And not only are they trying to earmark the bill, they are earmarking the bill for ACORN, an activist group that is under investigation for voter registration fraud in several states.

Leave it to the Democrats….

Will it never end?  Seriously?

For more info MM is keeping updates.

UPDATE:  An explanation from Papau2 (An Author Here On Texas Hill Country)

Sen. Lindsay Graham has jumped a few logic hurdles to get from the Affordable Housing Trust Fund — part of the legislation that passed the Senate Banking Committee in May and is poised to come to the Senate floor as early as this week — to a 20% of bailout bill will go to groups like the ACORN and the National Council of La Raza.

The “trust fund” does get its revenues from a legislatively fixed share of the surpluses of the government’s Federal Housing Administration or the profits from the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The latest version — in the housing and GSE oversight bill that cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May — would establish the fund by taking 1.2 basis points of interest from Fannie and Freddie’s loan portfolio — about $500 million a year. – over the 2 year life of the bailout that is 1 billion out of $700 billion in the rescue bill with $625 million going to Acorn and such groups for “housing aid”- after two years, all of the money to Acorn would go to the housing grant for bailing out troubled homeowners through FHA guarantees of modified loans (Richard Shelby in May stated he had reached a “compromise” with committee chairman Chris Dodd on the housing fund such that money from the “trust fund” would be used to fund the bill’s main action of bailing out troubled homeowners through FHA guarantees of modified loans. After two years, all of the money would go to the housing grant. The version of the bill that passed the Senate committee in May “diverted” half of the money intended for the housing trust fund in its first year and 25% in its second year, but after that 100% of the funds go into the housing trust fund).

The trust fund would allow recipients (Acorn and such) to use the money for lobbying and possibly political campaigning only because the prohibitions on using the funds for lobbying and political activity contain virtually no teeth in enforcing these bans. There are no explicit requirements for recipients of the grants to fill out timesheets for housing activity, or restrictions on groups using grant money to pay employees who also happen to do other things — such as lobbying and political campaigning. And there are really no penalties other than being forced to give the money back and being disqualified for a new grant.

It is true that ACORN histrory includes election fraud and misuse of federal funds with several ACORN workers indicted and/or convicted of voter registration fraud with phony signatures, and with Acorn sanctioned specifically for misuse of federal housing funds. In 1994, the ACORN Housing Corporation (AHC) received a grant from the newly created Americorps to assist low-income families at finding housing. In applying for the grant, the AHC claimed its activities were completley separate from ACORN – only to find out one year later via the Americorps Inspector General that “AHC used Americorps grant funds to benefit ACORN either directly or indirectly” with several instances of cost-shifting from ACORN’s lobbying group to the housing entity, and also found several instances of steering recipients of housing counseling into ACORN memberships.

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